tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3994625322780053753.post404825716523125614..comments2024-01-09T01:04:09.577-08:00Comments on FreeGoldObserver: The Forgotten Crisis And What Every Financial Pundit Didn't Learn From ItMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14298632737279907377noreply@blogger.comBlogger26125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3994625322780053753.post-9704503901129730542023-08-05T00:06:03.842-07:002023-08-05T00:06:03.842-07:00Cod Benzeri Oyunlar
Terraria Benzeri Oyunlar
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The reason is that allot of the du...@ byiamBYoung<br /><br />The reason is that allot of the dumb money thinks bonds are safer then the equity market. And allot of the big money is seeking liquidity. Add them both up and you have the biggest bubble of all time.<br /><br />As Marc Faber said "If you held German government bonds throughout the 20's and through the hyperinflation and world wars, you got wiped out 3 times. If you held Siemens stock, traded on the German exchange throughout the same time period, you would still have money today."<br /><br />The biggest losses will be incurred in the bond market.<br />Mhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14298632737279907377noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3994625322780053753.post-90495937127935555472012-10-20T20:29:29.840-07:002012-10-20T20:29:29.840-07:00@M,
"Fidelity's bond funds exceeded the ...@M,<br /><br />"Fidelity's bond funds exceeded the size of their equity funds for the first time ever recently. That's a sign."<br /><br />I'm a relative newcomer to this arena, so let me ask: Is that because money is seeking a home with greater liquidity, or because money is nervous about the sustainability of the equity markets...or both?<br /><br />CheersbyiamBYounghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13175869237170162943noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3994625322780053753.post-76072312194874949102012-10-20T14:56:44.783-07:002012-10-20T14:56:44.783-07:00Copy that...Copy that...Mhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14298632737279907377noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3994625322780053753.post-3302063628972291912012-10-20T04:19:58.324-07:002012-10-20T04:19:58.324-07:00Information on the lack of a minimum wage in Switz...Information on the lack of a minimum wage in Switzerland<br /><br />http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/business/Minimum_wage_comes_under_the_spotlight.html?cid=31701888<br /><br />http://www.ch.ch/private/00054/00055/00543/00544/index.html?lang=en<br /><br />http://www.thelocal.ch/page/view/3424Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3994625322780053753.post-80321207070559170332012-10-20T04:17:09.916-07:002012-10-20T04:17:09.916-07:00Information in English on the lack of a Swiss mini...Information in English on the lack of a Swiss minimum wage-<br /><br />http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/business/Minimum_wage_comes_under_the_spotlight.html?cid=31701888<br /><br />http://www.ch.ch/private/00054/00055/00543/00544/index.html?lang=en<br /><br />http://www.thelocal.ch/page/view/3424Urban Redneckhttp://www.zerohedge.com/users/urban-rednecknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3994625322780053753.post-49113349469116664422012-10-19T19:19:45.191-07:002012-10-19T19:19:45.191-07:00@ byiamBYoung
Looking for signs....
Fidelity'...@ byiamBYoung<br /><br />Looking for signs....<br /><br />Fidelity's bond funds exceeded the size of their equity funds for the first time ever recently. That's a sign. <br /><br />Its anyone's guess how long it will last.<br />Mhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14298632737279907377noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3994625322780053753.post-18770789776150263572012-10-19T07:24:49.070-07:002012-10-19T07:24:49.070-07:00Thanks for an interesting piece. You triggered an ...Thanks for an interesting piece. You triggered an compelling thought for me.<br /><br />from your post, "...and pushed up asset prices to an unsustainable level. These asset prices eventually began to collapse, causing individuals and companies to default on debt obligations."<br /><br />In terms of looking for signs that the edge of the cliff has arrived, and the USD collapse is fully upon us, I had never thought that a rapid acceleration in individual and corporate defaults are unavoidable during the event, but must begin to happen immediately before the crisis goes parabolic. <br /><br />Not much notice to work with, I admit. But maybe enough to allow some quick trips to the bank, grocery, and coin shop?<br /><br />CheersbyiamBYounghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13175869237170162943noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3994625322780053753.post-16774714261308700992011-10-14T16:24:48.099-07:002011-10-14T16:24:48.099-07:00@ JDM
I`d like to see it, just email it to vdm023...@ JDM<br /><br />I`d like to see it, just email it to vdm02343@gmail.comMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14298632737279907377noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3994625322780053753.post-53009815535598754102011-10-13T15:43:45.187-07:002011-10-13T15:43:45.187-07:00Hey M, I wrote (what I think) was a very interesti...Hey M, I wrote (what I think) was a very interesting article on an aspect of the Asian Financial Crisis using data gleaned from the RBA.<br /><br />Let me know if you're interested in reading it, I can email it to you.JMDnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3994625322780053753.post-49943003985512789422011-10-09T13:14:58.929-07:002011-10-09T13:14:58.929-07:00@ MF
"Are you sure about the debt denominati...@ MF<br /><br />"Are you sure about the debt denominations of those Asian countries? In today's world foreign aid is still denominated in USD, so it would be strange to me if you were right."<br /><br />FOFOA posted this in his last piece(I didn't read his last piece until after I posted this one.)<br /><br />FOFOA-"...Asian contagion crisis wherein it was shown how quickly and easily a nation could be stressed by its liabilities denominated in foreign currency."<br /><br />As far as I know, a capital account surplus, whether in Asia in the 90's or the USA in the 2000's comes in the front door of the central bank denominated in a foreign currency and goes out the back door in the local currency. So the US's current account deficits are funded in foreign currency (Yen, RMB, Ruble,anyone who is buying US debt)but denominated in dollars. Just like SE Asian debt(current account deficit) was funded in mainly dollars and denominated in Baht, Peso , Ringgit ect.<br /><br />"If you are right, then why did they not print?"<br /><br />They could have if the capital stayed there to collect the payments. The only reason the US has the ability to print now is because the capital is still there to collect. That is why Peter Schiff rightly assumed when he wrote his book CrashProof, that the dollar would crash as the US economy crashed. It should have and it still will. It is quite an anomaly that it didn't in 2008. Its in-fucking-sane that it didn't. Excuse my lingo...Mhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14298632737279907377noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3994625322780053753.post-47454417118933434122011-10-09T13:05:02.344-07:002011-10-09T13:05:02.344-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Mhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14298632737279907377noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3994625322780053753.post-6634668968621514822011-10-09T11:12:31.975-07:002011-10-09T11:12:31.975-07:00(repost)
Hey M
I'm not taking a shot at you ...(repost)<br /><br />Hey M<br /><br />I'm not taking a shot at you either, just asking the most pertinent question I see. <br /><br />You see, I know that in Africa, the loans granted by the world bank ( or should I say engineered upon) third world countries are denominated in US dollars... so the worse things get in those countries, the more the debt becomes in real terms( despite the dollar also devaluing).<br /><br />This for example is what 'forced' Zimbabwe to print, they could not pay both their internal and external obligations anymore, with external being denominated in USD. <br /><br />So they paid in gold and foreign currency for external things, and paid internal things ( to cling to power) with printed Zimbabwe dollars.<br /><br />Are you sure about the debt denominations of those Asian countries? In today's world foreign aid is still denominated in USD, so it would be strange to me if you were right.<br /><br />If you are right, then why did they not print? As they then had the ability to repay foreign loans in devalued currency; the ability the USA has at this stage. <br /><br />Cheers<br /><br />TFMotley Foolhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06902761012772262091noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3994625322780053753.post-22102237491960303042011-10-09T11:04:00.663-07:002011-10-09T11:04:00.663-07:00@ MF
Was it a link or something ? Just re-post it...@ MF<br /><br />Was it a link or something ? Just re-post it. I wouldn't know where to look.Mhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14298632737279907377noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3994625322780053753.post-37227066245440909472011-10-09T10:54:59.924-07:002011-10-09T10:54:59.924-07:00@ Anonymous
"Would you trust something like...@ Anonymous <br /><br />"Would you trust something like the Central Fund of Canada, a closed ended fund? I need something to put registered retirement account assets into that is safe."<br /><br />If I had to pick one, that would be it. I am not sure but I thought that some sovereign gold is held there the same way which is good. You should still buy some physical with your savings.<br /><br />"Also, shouldn't the US do well compared to Canada in a currency crisis, since the US owns a large amount of gold per capita and Canada owns almost none?" <br /><br />Possibly. But Canada is part of the dollar bloc now. The Royal Bank of Canada is a Fed primary dealer. Canada may somehow get worked into the deal again when the US re-mobilizes its gold. Plus it has lots of gold in the ground, and oil.<br /><br />"(I think this is might be different from Schiff's view). Also, even though China has large foreign reserves, they are mostly paper. So I don't see why China should "decouple" (Schiff's words) when their foreign reserves become worthless because they don't own much gold like the US or Europe. "<br /><br />I respect Schiff for being so dedicated on his stance on the dollar. He is 100% correct on that. The problem is, Schiff likes the concept of the Bretton Woods 2 system too much. He under-estimates how much the system is actually human creation and not a market creation. He thinks that the free market can work fine within this creation. Evidently, it cant. That is why he is bullish on foreign currencies that have sound fundamentals within the system. That is also why he said he would sell all his gold if it got in the 5 digit range. Like allot of gold bugs, he is looking for a repeat of the 1970's 80's and 90's, a bear market in gold and a new 30+ year run in bonds. <br /><br />China is the biggest gold importer in the world and the biggest producer of gold so I think they have more then they say. In some way or another China will decouple just because of the productive capacity and potential of their economy. Those are Schiffs words. Schiff just thinks that China will decouple within Bretton Woods 2. That is what I disagree with.Mhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14298632737279907377noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3994625322780053753.post-90086476140196064002011-10-09T09:43:21.667-07:002011-10-09T09:43:21.667-07:00@ Frikinstik
" Friend of a Friend of ANOTHE...@ Frikinstik <br /><br />" Friend of a Friend of ANOTHER has covered this issue of the Asian currency crisis "<br /><br />Thanks for the tip. I read about half of ANOTHER and lost track of where I was. I am going to start reading it all again from start to finish.Mhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14298632737279907377noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3994625322780053753.post-57193645323365215182011-10-09T05:18:54.846-07:002011-10-09T05:18:54.846-07:00Hi M
It seems my last comment didn't arrive h...Hi M<br /><br />It seems my last comment didn't arrive here, though I did get it in mail. Would you like me to repost or will you go look for it? <br /><br />TFMotley Foolhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06902761012772262091noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3994625322780053753.post-10378546988971420792011-10-09T04:21:54.140-07:002011-10-09T04:21:54.140-07:00I like this article and am responding to as a foll...I like this article and am responding to as a follow up to let you know that Freind of a Friend of ANOTHER has covered this issue of the asian currency crisis but in numerous posts that dated back to at least 2000 in the original cryptic ANOTHER posts on kitco. do to time restraints i am unable to link the certain parts of said posts. i mention this not to be disrespectful of your article and blog but just as an update.<br />bottom line, yours and FOFOA, FOA and Another's opinion of the causes, effects of the Asian Currency Crisis and inevitable freeing of gold from the chains of this paradigm are all consistant, except yours breaks it down "Romper Room" style and is very easy to grasp. thanx<br />FrikinstikAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3994625322780053753.post-90461833991587819332011-10-08T21:21:30.667-07:002011-10-08T21:21:30.667-07:00Thank you very much for your reply. Would you trus...Thank you very much for your reply. Would you trust something like the Central Fund of Canada, a closed ended fund? I need something to put registered retirement account assets into that is safe.<br /><br />Also, shouldn't the US do well compared to Canada in a currency crisis, since the US owns a large amount of gold per capita and Canada owns almost none? (I think this is might be different from Schiff's view). Also, even though China has large foreign reserves, they are mostly paper. So I don't see why China should "decouple" (Schiff's words) when their foreign reserves become worthless because they don't own much gold like the US or Europe.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3994625322780053753.post-88925255010101206352011-10-08T20:40:41.611-07:002011-10-08T20:40:41.611-07:00@ Anonymous
Silver is a tough question..
I don&...@ Anonymous<br /><br />Silver is a tough question.. <br /><br />I don't think silver will follow gold because central banks have never bought silver. They only hold gold. This is where allot of gold bugs will get burned possibly. But that doesn't mean it will be a bad performing asset. It just wont do as good as gold. Some people believe that silver will crash because they rely completely on John Exters inverse pyramid of liquidity.<br /><br /> http://atyantcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/Exters-Pyramid-1-300x300.png<br /><br />I don't because there is nothing forcing people to sell their silver to buy treasury bonds.<br /><br />Mining stocks are risk money. Quality debt free unhedged mining stocks represent real capital but they also represent paper. Consider them half physical gold and half paper gold. With that in mind, have a look at this version of the Exters pyramid: <br /><br />http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-iurp4LreE_4/TfyLsQECckI/AAAAAAAAAos/hJN8VNFeYYQ/s1600/assets%2Band%2Bclaims%2Bdiagram.png<br /><br />If the COMEX price of gold(paper gold) crashes and there is no price of gold on the tape for a period of time then who knows what could happen to mining stocks. They could rise and survive with the price of gold but they could also crash. They could be nationalized too. They are a good gamble for really wealthy people that already have a mountain of physical gold but if you are not really wealthy, you are best to just buy as much physical as you can so you can ride along with them.<br /><br />ETF's are dangerous, whether it is the miners or the metal ETFs. The world is being driven to gold literally. Allot of gold bugs believe that the first ever debt backed fiat reserve currency crisis will just result in bubbly gold market that will resemble the Nasdaq stock market in the late 90's. That is why they trust and sell ETF's and stuff. They think there will be a time to get out in the near future. I don't think physical gold will play the same role as Pets.com did in the coming years. But hey, that is just me.....<br /><br />Allot of these same gold bugs think gold is kinda expensive now because they bought it at the low. Their claim to fame is their good timing and speculating but if they know it all, they could have bought things like real estate and bank stocks 11 years ago that had higher and faster gains then gold did.....IF they knew when to sell.Mhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14298632737279907377noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3994625322780053753.post-26345845331695954542011-10-08T19:19:22.677-07:002011-10-08T19:19:22.677-07:00Do you think silver will roughly follow gold upwar...Do you think silver will roughly follow gold upward in this scenario? What about gold miners? I own mainly "paper assets"--but these are GDX and SIL.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3994625322780053753.post-59210074582614278472011-10-08T13:59:04.324-07:002011-10-08T13:59:04.324-07:00@ MF
(I never took a shot at FOFOA, schiff et al...@ MF<br /><br />(I never took a shot at FOFOA, schiff et al for saying anything wrong. I was just saying that they have never mentioned the Asian financial crisis)<br /><br />"Just a small thing. The debts of the Asian countries, was it denominated in their own currencies?"<br /><br />Yes it was denominated in their own currencies. "Foreign debt" does not mean it is denominated in foreign currency, it just means it is owned by foreign creditors.<br /><br />"How about the debt of the United States, is it denominated in dollar?"<br /><br />Yes it is and it is owned by foreign creditors. Only Japanese debt is mostly owned by domestic creditors. Allot of Euro debt too but the US is full on foreign owned.Mhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14298632737279907377noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3994625322780053753.post-71632094937362661252011-10-08T13:37:06.241-07:002011-10-08T13:37:06.241-07:00Hello again JOL
"One question though: their ...Hello again JOL<br /><br />"One question though: their raising interest rates, doesn't seem to be on a western agenda these days..."<br /><br />At the moment, for some reason, the Fed has the luxury that the whole world is using the US bond market as a place to sit and wait. The world is not sitting in the US bond market for any fundamental reasons. There will come a time though, just like in the 70's, when investors will base their decisions on holding US debt on fundamentals(inflation rate,yield,debt load). That is the turning point where the Fed/treasury will have to try and incentivize capital to stay in the bond market.Remember Ben Bernanke said he could raise rates in 15 minutes haha. The SE Asian central banks tried... how well did it work ? The Fed doesn't have the slightest hope in hell. Rates would have to go at least as high as they did last time this happened, which was about 20% interest, 11% real. At those kind of rates, the current budget wouldn't come close to covering the interest, never mind the principal. Then its all over for the US dollar. It will plunge by at least 50% in days, just like the Thai baht.<br /><br />"do you think that is relevant or not?"<br /><br /><br /> Nothing is relevant until sentiment changes on the US dollar and bond market. As of now, the Fed and treasury can do no wrong. They can openly monetize debt, become the largest holder of treasuries, get downgraded, lie about inflation, you name it, the world still buys bonds. But when sentiment shifts, the Fed or the treasury can do no right. They can try and cut spending and raise rates but nothing will stop the capital flight. NOTHING.Mhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14298632737279907377noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3994625322780053753.post-31445297096875419142011-10-07T08:38:56.949-07:002011-10-07T08:38:56.949-07:00Hey M
"Also, was it mentioned once that any ...Hey M<br /><br />"Also, was it mentioned once that any of these Asian countries where printing currency that resulted in these huge devaluations ? No. "<br /><br />Just a small thing. The debts of the Asian countries, was it denominated in their own currencies? <br /><br />How about the debt of the United States, is it denominated in dollar?<br /><br />Peace<br /><br />TFMotley Foolhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06902761012772262091noreply@blogger.com